Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the last two months has exposed many of the social problems of the West. We are witnessing the displacement of millions, the killing of thousands, massive economic damage, inflation, expected recession, and racist media reporting regarding the refugee crisis as a result of the war. Although imperialist wars and occupations have been waged in different parts of the world for decades (Afghanistan, Yemen, Palestine…), Putin’s devastation of Ukraine has been under media scrutiny. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s historic reports on the state of the climate and what the world needs to do to prevent the most extreme climate scenarios have been drowned in an avalanche of (justified) reports from Ukraine. As if this were not enough, the sanctions against Russia, and with it the emerging situation with Russian fossil gas, affect the entire region, continent and beyond.
The climate crisis and scientific warnings
The extraction and burning of fossil fuels is the biggest cause of the climate crisis, and their distribution and use significantly contribute to the destruction of numerous communities and ecosystems. The latest 6th report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC/IPCC) is the latest warning from the scientific community around the world: a rapid reduction in the use of fossil fuels (including gas) by 2030 or climate collapse. Even the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world’s energy body historically inclined to support the fossil industry, declared in a key report last year: “If the world wants to reach net zero by 2050, we have no room for developing new oil, gas or coal projects.”
Upon the publication of the latest IPCC report, the Secretary General of the United Nations (UN), Antonio Guterres, announced on his Twitter account :
“Climate activists are sometimes portrayed as dangerous radicals. But the real dangerous radicals are the countries that increase the production of fossil fuels. Investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure is moral and economic madness. “
In addition to the loud warnings to stop any fossil projects, this 6th IPCC report is also very significant in terms of recognizing the role of colonialism as a historical and continuing cause of the climate crisis. This is because in the analysis of the literature in the field of climate change during the preparation of the IPCC report this year there is a greater inclusion of several perspectives: scientific papers prepared by scientists from the social sciences, authors of color and scientists, such as and scientists who come from indigenous communities. The included research from these groups of scientists, which in the past were not much taken into account, gives us a more realistic picture of the connection of the climate crisis with socio-economic problems everywhere, as well as with the extraction of resources from the colonies of Western countries and “progress” and the ‘development’ of the Western countries through the continuous impoverishment and relaxation of the colonies. The inclusion of such research in the IPCC analysis indicates the beginning of a change in the discourse in the presentation of science around the climate crisis. In addition to being more realistic, acknowledging the influence of colonialism and imperialism in causing climate collapse makes these key IPCC reports more socially responsible and provides more realistic and just solutions for how to avoid the most extreme climate disasters.
Another historic moment in this IPCC report is the inclusion of discussions around growth – political, economic and social theory and criticism of economic growth, the paradigm on which the current socio-economic system in decay – capitalism is based. Social scientist Timothy Parik singles out these discussions and chapters of the IPCC report where adulthood is considered as:
- an alternative concept of sustainability with a specific focus on the well-being of people and ecosystems;
- a scenario for modeling trajectories to reduce greenhouse gas emissions;
- term in the context of potential scenarios of demand, services and social aspects of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigating the climate crisis;
- term in terms of accelerating the transition in the context of sustainable development.
Obligations of the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement: Nationally Determined Contributions
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are a set of actions and policies that each country signatory to the Paris Agreement must prepare, submit to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and implement before 2030. The goal of national contributions is the joint limitation of global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (the level of global warming in the 1990s). According to the current NDC pledges of UNFCCC countries, we are currently on track for 2.1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100 (see Figure 1 and Figure 2), which is already catastrophic for vast numbers of people. communities and ecosystems.
Illustration 1 shows an updated comparison of global emissions under the scenarios assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C with total global emissions under nationally determined contributions (source: Nationally determined contribution synthesis report)
Illustration 2: Current trajectory with total national contributions (red line), IPCC modeled trajectory for staying below 2°C (orange), IPCC modeled trajectory for staying below 1.5°C (blue) (source: COP26 Briefing paper:
We must take into account that the NDC promises of each of the countries, although publicly shared, are legally non-binding, which means that the difference between the promises, their transformation into laws, implementation and climate action at the national level, is actually much greater.
At the heart of global climate action coordinated by the UNFCCC is the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and appropriate capabilities”. This means that developed countries, unlike countries on whose backs they first developed, have a responsibility to take much bigger and more radical steps towards transforming their economies to reduce and mitigate their impact on climate collapse. But as you might guess, the reality is different. Namely, hundreds of civil society organizations from all over the world are signatories to the Civil Society Equity Review survey from November 2021 – a review of the level of equity in the share of mitigating the climate crisis by the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement, analyzing the submitted national contributions.
In the Civil Society Equity Review, the associated organizations write:
“Fossil fuels are at the heart of today’s wars, inflation, pandemics and climate and environmental crisis; The Civil Society Equity Review [in climate mitigation] advocates phasing out [of fossil fuel use] as a key part of any appropriate action to reduce production and consumption peacefully.”
According to the results of the research carried out on the NDC submissions of 13 key countries, the combined civil society (see Figure 3) finds that:
“While the contribution to global efforts to mitigate the climate crisis by the richest countries remains far below the contribution that is fairly expected of them, the contribution of the less rich countries, their pledges of actions and policies to mitigate the climate collapse is coming up to about right, or and more than their fair share.”
Illustration 3: Comparison of fair mitigation shares (green bar) and NDC pledges (red lines). For reference, projected emission levels for 2030 (white-grey bar) are also shown as an indicative illustration of the share level required for full decarbonisation (all figures in tonnes of CO2eq per capita of mitigation below the baseline in 2030 ) (source Civil Society Equity Review, 2021).
Legal and strategic framework for energy and climate in the Republic of North Macedonia
Energy
While the world scientific community and the UN warn of new investments in fossil fuels and call them “moral and economic madness”, the top of our country boasts of investments in new gas infrastructure. Although we are a country with about 300 sunny days a year and a huge solar and wind potential for decentralized production of energy from renewable sources, Macedonia met the energy crisis completely unprepared and the energy crisis only deepened .
The energy sector in the country is planned with the Energy Development Strategy until 2040 , and regulated through numerous laws , by-laws and regulations . In an extensive analysis of the Macedonian electricity system , Assoc. Dr. Gjorgjioska and Andonovski write:
“The factors that determine today’s crisis in the electricity sector of Macedonia do not date from yesterday, but have been going on for thirty years, actually since its independence as a state. In general, many reasons could be listed for today’s situation, but, sublimated, they could all be summed up within that simple phrase – non-household management. Ever since the time of socialist Yugoslavia, not a single investment has been made in this sector that would significantly affect the amount of total electricity produced. “
Energy mix
The mix of primary energy fuels available to the state consists mainly of fossil fuels, hydro, solid biofuels and renewable energy sources (RES) .
Illustration 4: Mix of primary energy fuels in North Macedonia in 2019 (in ktoe) Status – November 1, 2021; source: EUROSTAT; downloaded from:Energy Community, Primary fuel mix of North Macedonia in 2019 (in ktoe)
Russian occupation of Ukraine, energy insecurity and dependence on fossil gas
But the consumption is almost three times higher (Illustration 5) than the production and what the state can afford.
Illustration 5: Gross internal consumption of North Macedonia in 2019 (in ktoe). Status – April 2019; source: EUROSTAT; downloaded from:Energy Community, Gross inland consumption of North Macedonia in 2019 (in ktoe)
Instead of nationalizing and decentralizing the energy system in the interest of citizens and the climate, the non-domestic management in the energy sector in the country in the last three decades, as well as the ignoring of the numerous warnings of individual experts, the distorted priorities and the undivided focus of the local elections of the government and parties made the energy crisis that hit Macedonia starting from June last year to be devastating for many citizens and small businesses. In How Europe’s Sun Capital Became Dependent on Bread and Electricity by the Investigative Reporting Lab, they write:
“Besides the problems with electricity production and the impossibility to influence the prices of petroleum products, the price of gas is also a real problem, as well as the reliability of the supply of this energy. Currently, Macedonia is connected to only one main gas pipeline. The entire amount of natural gas is imported from Russia through the International Corridor 8 which passes through Ukraine, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. The energy infrastructure in the natural gas sector consists only of a transmission network and three distribution networks. There are no natural gas storage facilities.”
The Ministry of Economy, under whose management the Department of Energy falls, is convinced that Putin’s decisions regarding Russian gas will not have a (major) impact on our gas supply. But we see that Bulgaria, through whose connector Macedonia receives the fossil gas it uses, already has a Plan B. A potential, and already infrastructurally supported, connection to an “alternative” pipeline is the connection to the Eastern Mediterranean pipeline which, like any other pipeline, has caused a huge amount of community displacement, ecosystem destruction, injustice and conflict in the Middle East and southern Europe .
In crisis situations, the communities and citizens who are already more affected by the intertwined circumstances of the unjust system are always the first and the most to suffer. The skyrocketing bills, the more expensive basic (food and other) products, the impossibility of dignified heating and cooling of households, the closing of many small businesses, are just the beginning of everything that follows as the impact of the rapid Macedonian standard and economy from the occupation of Russia on Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia . As Naomi Klein writes in her monumental book Shock Doctrine , governments and corporations use all moments of crisis to push solutions that would advance the interests of a small elite of capitalists instead of the interests of 90+% of citizens. In the case of the current military crisis in Europe, the interests of the fossil industry are prioritized; new pipelines and connectors are being built despite the desperate need to drastically reduce the use of fossil fuels to mitigate the impact of climate collapse. In the region, instead of insisting on a rapid transition to RES, the Southeast European Gas initiative of the Energy Community, under the guise of security in gas supply, strengthens the position of the fossil gas industry.
Despite the reputation of a “climate leader” that the European Union wants to cultivate, the European Parliament this year adopted the 5th list of projects of common interest (PCI list) which contains about 30 gas projects that will have access to public funds . A dozen European financial institutions directly finance the Russian fossil industry , thus facilitating the continuation of Putin’s military activities.
It is clear as day that governments around Europe and the world, even if they have the will to mitigate and reduce the climate crisis, dealing with the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: the economic crisis, military threats and the continuing refugee crisis, allow them to turn a blind eye to the biggest problem with which humanity and all living organisms are facing today – climate collapse.
Renewable energy sources
The situation is not much different here. Instead of an increase, in the last three years (2017-2019) we have witnessed a decline in the share of RES in the country’s energy mix.
Illustration 6: Share of energy from renewable sources by year. Source: EUROSTAT, taken from Energy Community: Shares of Energy from Renewable Sources
The largest share of RES in the national energy mix comes from large hydropower plants (Illustration 7). It is devastating that hydropower is still considered a ‘renewable energy source’ even though the negative consequences of it are very well known and the classification of hydropower as renewable is very outdated.
Illustration 7: Total renewable energy capacities in 2019, 2018, 2017 (MW). Status – November 1, 2020. Source: Ministry of Economy, taken from Energy Community: Total capacities of renewable energy 2019, 2018, 2017 (MW)
But real renewable energy sources have huge potential and a role in the transition to sustainable energy. Recently, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Investment Framework for the Western Balkans and bilateral donors financed the first state-owned solar power plant of 10MW in Macedonia , installed on the site of TPP Oslomej. The former top state business made up of the Angjushev-Zaev duo has also seen the potential of RES and used its time in the highest management structures to prepare the Energy Development Strategy until 2040 and transpose the laws in the sphere according to its interests. So, the Zaevi and Angjushevi families are definitive private players in the energy sector in the country with opportunities for profit created while holding the highest decision-making positions.
Climate
The climate risks that Macedonia is beginning to feel are numerous : from long heat waves, to extended dry periods, to a decrease in precipitation throughout the year; every sector of functioning in the country is beginning to be increasingly influenced by the climate crisis.
Last year, Macedonia submitted the Revised National Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC and determined the Roadmap for the implementation of the revised contribution for the next 10 years . The long-term strategy and the climate action law have been in preparation for several years, and the Strategy is about to be adopted (for the law we will wait a little longer). But the reality is that despite the efforts of many individuals in the field over the years, the entities integral to initiating the necessary radical climate action such as the Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning (MESP), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the Cabinet of the Vice Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Economy and the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, are very often inconsistent in the implementation of their most basic functions, and are far from planning climate action through a radical change of the Macedonian socio-economic functioning.
To deal with the climate and energy crisis, systemic solutions are necessary
But there is no time and space for justice and despair; every interval reduced by a degree Celsius of global warming is extremely important. The action plan for the implementation of the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans by the European Commission is an incremental, insufficiently researched and mainly problematic step towards the transition to RES in the region, not consulted with experts, organizations and grassroots communities that have been working for years to transform our society into a more sustainable one. such as the joint initiatives in the Coalition of the Future and the Balkan Green Deal.
The steps we must take should be systemic and radical. Anthropologist and environmental economist Jason Hickel shares 5 solid proposals that would be made if we were to ‘truly treat the climate crisis as an emergency ‘ :
- Full nationalization of energy companies, reduction of production (of luxuries) and control of the price of energy;
- Introduction of ‘social guarantee’ such as universal income, quality and affordable healthcare, schooling and housing, clean and public transport, clean water, energy and accessible internet;
- Introduce a wealth tax that will collect and distribute the wealth of the extremely rich and reduce their ability to endlessly use the resources from which all humanity must live;
- Massive public mobilizations of people from everywhere to demand these changes;
Payment of climate reparations by developed countries that have colonized the atmosphere for their own enrichment, while causing enormous damage to the already severely affected states and communities of the global south.
A large number of movements and initiatives are leaders in creating opportunities and mobilization around the above mentioned steps. The latest report from the aviation emissions reduction movement Stay Grounded, Common Destination: Reengineering Aviation to Ensure Safe Landings and Set Paths to a Fair Planet provides a comprehensive overview of how we can build fair futures for all , freed from the constraints of capitalism, infinite growth and the fossil industry. Gastivists, on the other hand, are just one of the many incredible and inspiring movements that have prepared tools for organizing campaigns against gas and for climate and energy justice. It remains for us personally, but also collectively, to take the tools and get to work.
Author:
Simona Getova
Simona is a PhD student in the field of political ecology at the Department of Political and Social Sciences at the Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona. She is an organizer for climate and social justice and works at the intersections of political education, governance and collective action for socially just and ecologically healthy communities in the Balkans and beyond. Simona is the co-founder of The Climate Herald and Kolektiv Z. Twitter: @SimonaGetova